Scranton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

289
FXUS61 KBGM 191626
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1226 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions Saturday will be replaced by a brief
period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight
and Sunday. A cool and dry air mass settles in Monday and
Tuesday before the heat and humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the threat for a
few pop up showers and weak storms, mainly over northeast PA
this afternoon, and the next round of convection potentially
rolling through tonight, but with a secondary (more likely)
period of showers and storms Sunday afternoon.

Large scale pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast US
will be defined by broad, weak cyclonic flow aloft today and
tomorrow. However, in the low levels and at the surface a weak
area of high pressure will drift eastward through the interior
Northeast today and off the coast on Sunday. This feature
combined with a narrow wedge of drier air should keep conditions
dry for most of central NY today. There is a weak stationary
front oriented west-to-east across the Mid Atlantic region this
morning that may (15-25% chance) trigger some scattered showers
or isolated weak thunderstorms over northeast PA and points
south this afternoon. If anything does get going later today,
the convection should be mostly disorganized and not impactful.

Conditions are not ideal and confidence is low concerning
convection today in ne PA. The forcing along the front to the
south is generally weak and given the abundance of cloud cover
to the south, where there is more deep layer moisture and more
available instability this afternoon, any convection that does
initiate should have a very difficult time becoming deep and
mature. Model forecast soundings are also indicating the
presence of an inversion around 10-15k ft that will likely limit
the depth of growth. ML CAPE values generally less than 500
J/kg and shallow low and mid level lapse rates, along with less
than 30 kt of shear will keep a lid on the threat for severe
storms today.

One feature we will be watching later today and tonight will be
the evolution of a potential MCS coming out of the Midwest. The
current area of convection in IL has an eastward track, but
there is still uncertainty with respect to how it will move and
interact with a short wave dropping in from Canada. At this time
it appears that any lingering convection will be light and
scattered in nature when it moves across NY/PA early Saturday
morning. Will need to watch this.

The main period of potentially strong to severe storms will be
the late morning and afternoon time frame Sunday when the
primary trough/cold front pushes through NW to SE. Much of this
potential will depend on how much the early morning convection
lingers or keeps the boundary layer too well-mixed and doesn`t
allow the instability to build enough for deep convection to
result later in the day. This appears to be a very conditional
environment setting up. The greatest threat area appears to be
east and south of Binghamton, NY...which also aligns where SPC
has the Slight Risk for Sunday.

The passage of the front is expected to be between 4-8 PM from
just east/south of the Finger Lakes when the convection starts
to develop through the Catskills and Poconos by the evening. The
main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts, but some hail
can`t be ruled out. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding
appears to be low (5% or less) given the very progressive
movement of the storms along the front, and the lack of deep
moisture (PW around 1.5 inches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A period of relatively quiet weather will set up in short term,
with the exception of Sunday night when a narrow ribbon of
moisture will drop south from Ontario and bring with it some
cooler air that will interact with the warm waters of the lake
to produce some lake enhanced rain showers and cloud cover over
western and central NY.

There will likely be a window where isolated rain showers perk
up across the Finger Lakes and the Southern Tier of NY early
Monday morning due to some weak lake and terrain enhancement
south of Lake Ontario. There is a narrow corridor of slightly
higher PWs (around 0.75 to 1 inch), embedded within the mostly
drier air mass, that could interact with some lake influence to
produce a period of increased low/mid level cloud cover and
isolated rain showers. No significant impacts are expected from
this.

Later Monday morning the dry air will dominate and allow the
skies to clear out and remain clear through Monday night.
Temperatures will warm nicely into the mid to upper 70s Monday
afternoon with low humidity (dew points in the 50s). A coolish
night is expected Mon night with overnight lows in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging starts to build on Tuesday along with a
surface high into the Great Lakes. This large scale suppression
combined with a warming air mass will keep conditions quiet/dry
and allow the heat to gradually build through the week. Tuesday
temperatures and humidity will still be mostly comfortable with
highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the 50s...and overnight
lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s.

However, by Wed the transition will begin back to more summer-
like with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points back in
the lower 60s. The ridge and large scale suppression will likely
still dominate the region on Wednesday, but there is a chance
the ridge starts to break down on Thursday and definitely by
Friday with increasing chances for scattered afternoon/evening
showers and storms. Heat indices in the 90s will return by Thu
and Fri as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected until later tonight. A marine
layer stratus deck will possibly work its way into AVP towards
around midnight and may also push farther north into BGM and ELM
during the early morning hours on Sunday. Finally, a frontal
system will be approaching the region on Sunday morning and a
prefrontal trough could bring some MVFR rain showers into SYR
and RME towards the end of the forecast period.


Outlook...

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MPK